The Coming HIV Care Crisis
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)'s reduction of Medicaid expansion eligibility from 138% to 100% of the federal poverty level (FPL) creates an unprecedented crisis for HIV care in the United States, threatening to force approximately 200,000 people living with HIV off coverage while simultaneously undermining the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program's capacity to serve as an adequate safety net, ultimately jeopardizing decades of progress toward ending the HIV epidemic and disproportionately harming communities of color and rural populations who already face significant barriers to care.
A Crisis at the Intersection of Policy and Survival
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, 2025, represents, according to the National Alliance of State and Territorial AIDS Directors (NASTAD), a moment when "AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs) stand at a critical precipice." Let us not mince words: this legislation systematically dismantles the interconnected safety net that has enabled the United States to achieve the highest rates of viral suppression in the history of the epidemic.
The math, like those who passed this legislation, is cruel and unforgiving. With 40% of non-elderly adults living with HIV relying on Medicaid for coverage—nearly three times the rate of the general population—this eligibility reduction targets precisely the demographic most dependent on public health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that 7.8 million people will lose Medicaid coverage overall, with advocacy organizations estimating that approximately 200,000 people living with HIV will be among those stripped of coverage.
The timing creates a perfect storm. As NASTAD warns, "enhanced premium tax credits associated with Marketplace plans are set to expire later this year." At the same time, state health departments face "drastic budget cuts and reductions in force because of federal agency cuts." This convergence of federal policy changes threatens to create what NASTAD calls "sharp increases in the number of uninsured people with low incomes," precisely when the safety net programs designed to catch them are facing their own funding constraints.
The Medicaid Foundation: Why This Coverage Matters
The reduction from 138% to 100% of the federal poverty level specifically targets the income bracket where HIV prevalence is highest. Research demonstrates that 42% of Medicaid enrollees with HIV gained coverage through the Affordable Care Act's expansion, with this figure rising to 51% in expansion states. More than a mere statistical abstraction, it represents hundreds of thousands of people living with HIV (PLWH) who gained access to consistent, comprehensive healthcare for the first time.
The financial implications reveal the complexity of HIV care. Average Medicaid spending reaches $24,000 per HIV enrollee compared to $9,000 for non-HIV enrollees, reflecting the intensive medical management required for effective HIV treatment. When coverage disappears, these costs don't vanish—they shift to an already overwhelmed safety net or go unmet entirely, leading to treatment interruptions that increase viral loads and HIV transmission risk.
State-level analyses paint an even grimmer picture. Louisiana and Virginia face 21% spending cuts over the 10-year period, while Southern states that bear 52% of new HIV diagnoses despite comprising only 38% of the population will see disproportionate impacts. The legislation includes five major provisions that collectively cut $896 billion from Medicaid: work requirements, repealing Biden-era eligibility rules, provider tax restrictions, state-directed payment limits, and increased eligibility redeterminations.
The Ryan White Program: Last Resort, Impossible Math
The Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program operates on a fundamentally different model than Medicaid—one that makes absorbing massive coverage losses mathematically impossible. With $2.6 billion in discretionary funding requiring annual Congressional appropriations, the program lacks Medicaid's entitlement structure that automatically expands to meet growing needs.
The program's current client base reveals the scale of the challenge. Ryan White already serves over 576,000 clients annually, representing more than half of all diagnosed HIV cases. Critically, 39% of Ryan White clients have Medicaid as their primary payer, meaning they use Ryan White for wraparound services Medicaid doesn't cover. When these people lose Medicaid, Ryan White must suddenly cover their entire care costs—an impossibility given current funding constraints.
NASTAD's analysis warns this would "shift unsustainable burdens to the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program," potentially forcing jurisdictions to reintroduce AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) waitlists not seen since the early 2010s. The program's "payer of last resort" status means it legally must serve anyone without other coverage options, creating an unfunded mandate when Medicaid disappears.
Historical evidence demonstrates the program's existing capacity limitations. From 2017-2019, 58.7% of uninsured persons had unmet needs for HIV ancillary care services, yet the program achieved 90.6% viral suppression rates among clients in 2023—a testament to its effectiveness when adequately resourced.
The proposed FY 2026 budget compounds this crisis by cutting Ryan White funding to $2.5 billion while eliminating Part F entirely. Part F includes AIDS Education and Training Centers that reached 56,383 health professionals last year, representing a critical workforce development component that would disappear precisely when demand for HIV care is expected to surge.
Healthcare Infrastructure Under Siege
Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHC), serving as the backbone of HIV care in underserved communities, face an existential crisis. With Medicaid comprising 43% of FQHC revenue, the reconciliation bill threatens the fundamental business model of these safety-net providers. FQHCs currently operate on razor-thin margins approaching negative 2.2%, with 42% reporting 90 days or less cash on hand.
The rural healthcare crisis intensifies these challenges. Over 700 rural hospitals face closure risk—representing one-third of all rural hospitals—with 171 having shut down since 2005. The bill's $25 billion rural transformation fund provides only 43% of what experts calculate is needed to offset Medicaid cuts.
For HIV care, this means losing critical access points in areas already designated as priority jurisdictions for the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative. Research demonstrates that FQHCs in the rural South could reduce median drive time to HIV care from 50 to 10 minutes—but only if they remain financially viable. When Medicaid patients lose coverage, FQHCs must still serve them as uninsured patients by law, creating additional uncompensated care costs the facilities cannot absorb.
The 340B Program: Hidden Financial Hemorrhaging
The removal of Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) spread pricing prohibitions represents a significant blow to 340B savings that HIV programs depend on for sustainability. The 340B program generated $38 billion in discounts in 2020 alone, with Ryan White clinics using these savings to serve an additional 43,000 people living with HIV.
Without spread pricing protections, PBMs can continue diverting these savings through discriminatory practices. States have documented massive overcharges: Ohio lost $224.8 million in one year, Pennsylvania $605 million over four years, and Maryland $72 million annually to spread pricing schemes. For HIV programs already operating on minimal margins, these losses represent the difference between serving patients, implementing waitlists, or shutting down altogether.
The policy intersection becomes particularly cruel when considering substance use services. While the OBBBA protects substance use disorder services from cost-sharing requirements—a "modest but important win" according to county officials—the broader context undermines these protections. Research shows 23.94% of people with HIV need treatment for alcohol or substance use, with people who inject drugs facing 30 times higher HIV risk than non-users.
Geographic and Demographic Devastation
The reconciliation bill's impacts fall hardest on communities already bearing disproportionate HIV burdens. Black and Hispanic/Latino people account for 64% of all people with HIV while representing only 31% of the population. These communities have higher Medicaid coverage rates due to lower incomes and higher disability rates, making them particularly vulnerable to coverage losses.
Southern states face a catastrophic combination of high HIV prevalence, limited state resources, and political resistance to mitigation strategies. The region accounts for 52% of new diagnoses, and includes many non-expansion states where 66% of HIV-positive adults rely on disability-related Medicaid pathways.
Nine states have trigger laws automatically ending Medicaid expansion if federal matching rates drop, creating immediate coverage cliffs. The intersection of geography, race, and poverty creates concentrated zones where HIV care infrastructure may collapse entirely, reversing decades of progress in communities that have historically faced the greatest barriers to care.
Clearly, This Isn’t About Fiscal Responsibility
The legislation represents fiscal malpractice when considering the long-term costs of new HIV transmissions. Each new HIV infection creates $501,000 in lifetime healthcare costs, while achieving 72% viral suppression would cost $120 billion over 20 years. The math is unambiguous: preventing new infections through sustained treatment is far more cost-effective than treating them after they occur.
The HIV community's response demonstrates the severity of the threat. Over 113 organizations relaunched the #SaveHIVFunding campaign, while the Partnership to End HIV, STI, and Hepatitis Epidemics united major organizations in opposition, emphasizing that "healthcare is not a reward for paperwork—it is a human right."
As NASTAD's analysis concludes, "When one of these pillars weakens, the others feel the shock waves"—and this bill doesn't just weaken pillars, it demolishes them. Without immediate action to reverse these cuts, the United States will witness a preventable reversal of decades of progress in HIV care, measured not in budget savings but in lives lost to a disease we know how to treat.
RFK Jr's Budget Testimony Reveals Concerning Vision for America's Healthcare Safety Net
In a pair of contentious congressional hearings last week, U.D. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. defended the Trump Administration's proposed fiscal year 2026 budget for HHS—a plan that would slash the department's discretionary funding by 26%, amounting to approximately $33 billion in cuts. These hearings before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee and the House Appropriations Committee provided the most comprehensive look yet at the administration's vision for reshaping America's healthcare system and safety net programs.
Secretary Kennedy's testimony, frequently punctuated by tense exchanges with lawmakers, outlined a fundamental restructuring of the federal government's role in healthcare under the banner of "Making America Healthy Again" (MAHA). The vision embraces dramatic cost reductions justified as eliminating "waste" and "bureaucracy," but the evidence suggests these changes would significantly impact access to healthcare for millions of Americans, particularly those living with chronic conditions and those from marginalized communities.
The Magnitude of Proposed Cuts
The scale of proposed reductions across HHS agencies is staggering, particularly for federal research and public health programs. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) faces an $18 billion reduction, nearly 40% of its current budget. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would see cuts of approximately $4 billion. Multiple agencies would be eliminated entirely, including the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), and the Administration for Community Living (ACL).
During his testimony, Kennedy framed these changes as necessary consolidations rather than eliminations: "We had nine separate offices of women's health. When we consolidate them Democrats say we're eliminating them. We're not. We're still appropriating the $3.7 billion," Kennedy told House lawmakers. He further justified the reductions by claiming that "my department grew by 38% over the last four years. I would say that's great if Americans got healthier, but they didn't. They got worse."
But the budget document itself tells a different story. The proposed restructuring would move many functions to a new "Administration for a Healthy America" (AHA) while explicitly cutting total funding. For example, the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which provides critical utility assistance to low-income Americans, would be eliminated entirely based on the rationale that "states have policies preventing utility disconnection for low-income households, effectively making LIHEAP a pass-through benefitting utilities in the Northeast," according to the budget proposal.
Impact on Health Coverage and Access
Perhaps most concerning are the projected impacts on health insurance coverage. The proposed budget works in tandem with the reconciliation bill currently working its way through Congress, which would impose significant changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), these changes could increase the number of people without health insurance by 8.6 million, with the total rising to 13.7 million when combined with the expected expiration of the ACA's enhanced premium tax credits. A Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis projects that the uninsured rate would increase by 5 percentage points or more in Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington, with 30 states and the District of Columbia seeing increases of at least 3 percentage points.
When Senator Bernie Sanders asked Kennedy about the reconciliation bill's potential to eliminate health insurance for 13.7 million Americans, Kennedy acknowledged that people would lose coverage but characterized the cuts as "eliminations of waste, abuse and fraud." Yet when pressed for specifics, the Secretary could not provide details on several programs affected, including funding delays for Head Start, impacts on clinical trials, and cuts to childhood lead poisoning prevention.
The Mirage of Medicaid Work Requirements
Central to both the budget proposal and the reconciliation bill is the implementation of Medicaid work requirements. Under these provisions, certain Medicaid recipients would need to work at least 20 hours per week to maintain their coverage. Proponents, including Kennedy, argue this would reduce dependency and promote employment.
However, extensive research contradicts these claims. According to Congressional Budget Office's own analysis, Medicaid work requirements "would have a negligible effect on employment status or hours worked by people who would be subject to the work requirements." This aligns with the real-world experience from Arkansas—the only state to fully implement such requirements—where more than 18,000 people lost coverage while employment rates remained unchanged.
The evidence shows that most Medicaid recipients who can work already do. A KFF analysis found that 92% of Medicaid adults under age 65 are either working (64%), caring for family members (12%), dealing with illness or disability (10%), or attending school (7%). Only 8% report being retired, unable to find work, or not working for another reason.
Moreover, a recent Commonwealth Fund study projects that implementing nationwide Medicaid work requirements would have devastating economic consequences. Between 4.6 million and 5.2 million adults could lose Medicaid coverage in 2026, cutting federal funding to states by $33 billion to $46 billion in the first year. This would trigger a $43 billion to $59 billion reduction in economic activity, a loss of 322,000 to 449,000 jobs nationwide, and a $3.2 billion to $4.4 billion reduction in state and local tax revenues.
"Our findings demonstrate a paradox of Medicaid work requirement policies: rather than bolstering employment—as claimed by proponents—they could actually reduce employment and people's earnings," the study's authors conclude. These economic impacts would extend beyond just expansion states, affecting all states due to interconnected economies.
Transparency and Public Input Concerns
Beyond specific policy proposals, the administration's approach to transparency and public input has raised alarm. In March 2025, HHS rescinded the Richardson Waiver, which had been in place since 1971 and required public comment periods for certain HHS actions. Senator Ron Wyden characterized this move as a shift from "radical transparency" to "radical secrecy," saying Kennedy has "shut the gates, locking out doctors, patient advocates, and everyday Americans from weighing in on the chaotic disruption of America's healthcare."
When questioned about specific programs being cut, Kennedy repeatedly cited a court order preventing him from discussing reorganization details. Yet this didn't stop him from defending the broader vision of massive structural change, leaving lawmakers and the public with limited ability to assess the full impact of the proposals.
Implications for Patients and Advocates
For people living with chronic conditions, including HIV, hepatitis, and other serious illnesses, the proposed changes would create multiple barriers to care. Reduced funding for research could slow the development of new treatments. Medicaid work requirements could jeopardize coverage for those whose conditions make consistent employment difficult but who don't qualify for disability exemptions. Cuts to public health programs would impact prevention efforts, disease surveillance, and outbreak response capabilities.
Rural communities face particular risks, with hospital closures likely to accelerate. A recent report found that 742 rural hospitals are already at risk of closing, with over 300 classified as being at "immediate risk." Cuts to Medicaid funding would further destabilize these essential providers.
Advocates must understand that while Secretary Kennedy has stated that appropriated funds will be spent as directed by Congress, the administration's budget proposal reveals its long-term vision for drastically reducing the federal government's role in healthcare. This makes engagement with congressional representatives, particularly those on appropriations committees, absolutely critical in the coming months.
The administration's budget proposal represents a fundamental reshaping of America's healthcare safety net that would leave millions of Americans with less access to care, despite evidence that key proposals like Medicaid work requirements fail to achieve their stated goals and may actually harm state economies and healthcare systems. As policymakers debate these changes, the voices of patients and advocates must be centered to ensure that vulnerable populations are not left behind in the pursuit of government efficiency.
Leaked HHS Budget: Critical HIV Services Face Deep Cuts
A recently leaked budget document from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has revealed the Trump Administration's plans for sweeping cuts that would fundamentally reshape federal health programs. The 64-page "pre-decisional" budget proposal, first reported by The Washington Post, outlines a severe reduction in HHS discretionary spending from $121 billion to approximately $80 billion—a 33% cut. This proposal provides the first comprehensive look at the administration's vision for restructuring the nation's health infrastructure, including the creation of a new Administration for a Healthy America (AHA) while eliminating or consolidating many established agencies that form the backbone of our public health system. The proposed changes would profoundly impact HIV/AIDS programs, viral hepatitis services, substance use disorder treatment, and access to care for vulnerable populations, potentially reversing decades of progress in public health.
The Scale of Proposed Cuts
The magnitude of cuts outlined in the leaked budget document would fundamentally transform the federal health infrastructure in ways not seen in decades. The National Institutes of Health (NIH), America's premier biomedical research institution, would see its budget slashed by 42%—from $47 billion to just $27 billion. This dramatic reduction would be accompanied by a plan to reorganize NIH's 27 institutes and centers into just eight, eliminating some entirely while consolidating others into broader entities with less specialized focus.
Similarly devastating, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) faces a proposed 44% budget reduction, from $9.2 billion to approximately $5.2 billion. The document indicates the CDC would be refocused primarily on "emerging and infectious disease surveillance, outbreak investigations, preparedness and response, and maintaining the Nation's public health infrastructure."
Even more concerning, several agencies would be eliminated entirely as independent entities, including the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), and the Administration for Community Living (ACL). While some programs from these agencies would transfer to the proposed Administration for a Healthy America (AHA), many would be eliminated outright. As the leaked document itself states: "Many difficult decisions were necessary to reach the funding level provided in this passback."
Impact on HIV/AIDS Infrastructure
The proposed budget would effectively dismantle decades of federal HIV prevention and treatment infrastructure, threatening to reverse significant progress made toward ending the epidemic. Most alarming is the complete elimination of the CDC's Division of HIV Prevention (DHP), which has been the cornerstone of the nation's HIV prevention efforts. According to POZ, the division passes 89% of its funding directly to state and local HIV programs, with states like Alabama and Mississippi depending on it for up to 100% of their HIV prevention efforts.
The budget also eliminates the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative, which was launched during Trump's first administration and has produced a 21% reduction in new HIV transmissions within targeted jurisdictions. This initiative represented a rare bipartisan commitment to addressing the HIV epidemic through increased testing, prevention, and treatment resources.
The Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, which provides essential care and treatment to over 550,000 people living with HIV who are uninsured or underinsured, would see significant cuts. The KFF analysis reveals that while core funding for grants to cities, states, and the AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) would be maintained, the budget eliminates support for dental services, AIDS Education and Training Centers, and demonstration programs.
Additionally, the Minority AIDS Initiative, which addresses the disproportionate impact of HIV on racial and ethnic minorities, would be eliminated entirely. This comes at a time when Black and Latino communities continue to face disproportionate HIV rates and could worsen existing health disparities.
"The scale of what is being lost is staggering," POZ reports. "According to recent analysis from amfAR, a 100% reduction in DHP funding will lead to 143,486 new HIV infections by 2030, 14,676 additional AIDS related deaths, and $60.3 billion in additional lifetime health care costs."
The proposal would move remaining HIV/AIDS programs under the new Administration for a Healthy America with reduced funding and an unclear structure, raising serious questions about program coordination and effectiveness going forward.
Viral Hepatitis, STIs, and Related Programs
The leaked budget proposal takes aim at viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and tuberculosis programs by consolidating their funding into a single, smaller grant program. According to POZ, "a proposal in the new budget to turn other CDC funding for viral hepatitis, STDs, and TB into block grants masks devastating funding losses as 'flexibility to address local needs.'" In reality, this consolidation would reduce overall funding by approximately $500 million, severely limiting the capacity to prevent and respond to outbreaks of these conditions.
Particularly concerning is the elimination of CDC's Global Health Center and the agency's critical STD laboratory, which MedPage Today confirms was shuttered during the recent mass layoffs. These cuts would dismantle essential testing infrastructure at a time when sexually transmitted infections are at record highs nationwide. The consolidation approach significantly weakens the specialized responses needed for these distinct but interconnected public health challenges, potentially allowing localized outbreaks to develop into broader public health crises without the targeted interventions currently in place.
Mental Health and Substance Use Disorder Services
The proposed budget calls for the complete elimination of the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the federal agency dedicated to addressing mental health and substance use conditions. The impact of this elimination would be compounded by severe cuts to services: Mental Health Services would see a 25% reduction, Substance Use Treatment funding would drop by approximately 13%, and most alarmingly, Substance Use Prevention would be nearly eliminated with a staggering 92% cut.
The proposal would eliminate 17 mental health programs and 23 substance use prevention and treatment programs. Harm reduction services, which are critical in preventing overdose deaths and the transmission of infectious diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), are particularly targeted for cuts. The proposed budget would also end the Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinic program, which provides 24-hour crisis services regardless of patients' ability to pay.
As STAT News reports, "We continue to face a mental health and addictions crisis, and the need for effective federal leadership is more important than ever." These cuts come at a time when more than one in four people will experience a mental health or substance use problem, and over 209,000 Americans die annually from alcohol, suicide, and drug overdoses.
Rural Health and Access to Care
Rural communities would bear a disproportionate burden from the proposed budget cuts through the elimination of numerous programs specifically designed to support rural healthcare infrastructure. As detailed in the leaked document, the budget would eliminate State Offices of Rural Health, which coordinate statewide efforts to improve healthcare delivery in rural areas. The Washington Post reports that rural hospital flexibility grants, rural residency development programs, and at-risk rural hospitals program grants would all face elimination or significant cuts.
Additionally, critical telehealth funding would be eliminated at a time when remote healthcare services have become essential lifelines for rural populations. These programs have historically enjoyed strong bipartisan support due to their critical role in maintaining healthcare access for the approximately 60 million Americans living in rural areas.
Alan Morgan, CEO of the National Rural Health Association said, "Those are essential to ensuring access to care for rural Americans and critical to keeping rural hospitals open. If that would come to fruition it would be absolute shocking news, because these programs have had such bipartisan support."
The Advisory Board notes that these cuts would exacerbate the already fragile state of rural healthcare, where over 150 rural hospitals have closed since 2010, leaving many communities without access to emergency and essential medical services.
340B Program and Healthcare Costs
Amid the sweeping cuts to safety-net programs, the leaked budget also proposes significant changes to the 340B Drug Pricing Program, which provides discounted medications to hospitals and clinics serving vulnerable populations. HFES reports that the administration is "seeking new authority to regulate 'all aspects of the 340B Program'" and would require covered entities to report on their use of 340B savings.
According to Health Exec, the proposal would require facilities to "charge no more than the actual cost of acquiring and dispensing drugs to low-income patients." While greater transparency might be beneficial, these changes—combined with cuts to other safety-net programs—could restrict access to affordable medications for people living with HIV, hepatitis, and other chronic conditions who rely on safety-net providers participating in the 340B program.
Conclusion
Unlike during Trump's first term when Congress often rejected deep cuts to health agencies, the current political landscape offers much less hope for meaningful congressional pushback. Under the GOP-controlled Congress, recent reports show Republicans largely falling in line behind Trump's initiatives, with Reuters reporting that the president is "testing the U.S. Constitution's system of checks and balances" while congressional Republicans demonstrate "staunch support." This legislative acquiescence has extended to health policy, with little effective opposition to the administration's sweeping restructuring of federal health agencies.
Further complicating advocacy efforts, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has eliminated a key avenue for public input by rescinding a 54-year-old policy that required public comment periods for rules on grants, benefits, and other health programs. This change, which came despite Kennedy's promises of "radical transparency," allows HHS to implement major policy changes without seeking feedback from affected communities, healthcare providers, or advocacy organizations.
In this environment, traditional advocacy approaches must evolve. In the absence of congressional intervention, our energy may be better spent:
Forming coalitions between patient groups, healthcare providers, private business, and public health organizations to amplify impact
Considering support for legal challenges to health policy changes implemented without adequate review
Carefully documenting and publicizing the real-world impacts of cuts to HIV services and other critical programs
Engaging with state officials who may have flexibility in implementing federal changes
Making use of remaining public comment opportunities when available, with a focus on evidence-based arguments
The proposed dismantling of federal HIV infrastructure represents an existential threat to decades of progress. While the political headwinds are strong, our collective advocacy efforts remain essential to protecting the health services that millions of Americans depend on.