The False Economy of Rationing Life
Across the country, states are making a choice. Faced with budget shortfalls driven by flat federal funding, the expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits, and the downstream wreckage of H.R. 1's nearly $800 billion in Medicaid cuts, they are choosing to solve their fiscal problems by restricting access to the medications that keep people living with HIV alive and stop the virus from spreading. Eighteen states have implemented cost-containment measureson their AIDS Drug Assistance Programs, with five more considering changes. Florida slashed ADAP eligibility from 400% to 130% of the federal poverty level on March 1, cutting off more than 12,000 people and removing Biktarvy, which accounts for 52% of the U.S. ARV market, from its formulary. Louisiana is considering HB927, legislation that would repeal the state's long-standing statutory protections against prior authorization and step therapy for antiretrovirals in Medicaid.
The pressures are real. ADAP enrollment surged 30% from 2022 to 2024 as states shed Medicaid enrollees after the pandemic. NASTAD's February 2026 ADAP Watch reports 19 ADAPs forecast deficits for the upcoming fiscal year. When adjusted for inflation, ADAP appropriations have declined 31% since 2005, with the FY2025 appropriation carrying roughly the same purchasing power as FY1999 levels. Nobody disputes the math. What we dispute, forcefully and on the evidence, is the response.
Utilization Management on ARVs Is Clinically Indefensible
Step therapy requires a patient to "fail" a medication before accessing the one their provider has already determined is best for them. In HIV treatment, failure means the virus has replicated in the presence of inadequate drug levels and potentially developed resistance, rendering the entire associated drug class less effective or ineffective. For someone on PrEP, "failing" a regimen means they have seroconverted and acquired HIV, possibly with resistance that limits their treatment options from day one. Prior authorization creates gaps in access while paperwork is processed. Drug resistance can develop within several weeks of stopping ART, as some components of a combination regimen remain in the body longer than others, leaving HIV exposed to one or two drugs instead of a full suppressive regimen. CD4+ cell counts can decline by up to 100 cells/mm³ within weeks of interruption. The SMART trial demonstrated that episodic ART interruption was associated with increased risk of opportunistic disease and death, findings so conclusive the strategy was abandoned entirely.
The CMS Medicare Part D Manual specifically notes that utilization management tools like PA and step therapy are generally not employed in best-practice formulary models for HIV/AIDS drugs. The American Academy of HIV Medicine issued a white paper with a single recommendation: HIV medications should be exempt from prior authorization requirements. As of 2019, 14 states had enacted laws prohibiting at least some UM techniques for ARVs. The broader health policy world is arriving at the same conclusion about PA generally: a January 2026 KFF Health Tracking Poll found that four in ten people with chronic conditions say prior authorization is their single biggest healthcare burden beyond costs, and KFF President Drew Altman has openly questioned whether its short-term cost control benefits are worth the costs to patients in an already overburdened system. If the mainstream is questioning PA broadly, the case for applying it to ARVs, where the clinical stakes include drug resistance, viral transmission, and death, does not exist.
The Math Doesn't Work, and the Motive Is Worse
Here is where we need to stop treating this conversation as though it is happening in good faith.
The stated rationale for stripping UM protections from ARVs is cost containment. But anyone who has watched private insurance markets operate over the past two decades recognizes what utilization management on high-cost drug classes actually produces: leverage. Private payers have used UM as a negotiating tool for years, threatening to restrict formulary access unless manufacturers offer deeper discounts. The people whose treatment gets disrupted in the process are the collateral damage that makes the threat credible.
CANN has been warning for years that as state Medicaid programs face mounting budget pressure, the temptation to adopt this same playbook would grow. That is exactly what is unfolding. When states impose PA and step therapy on antiretrovirals, the practical effect extends well beyond cost management. It creates a bargaining position where patient access to life-saving medication becomes a concession to be traded for supplemental rebates from manufacturers. This is the private payer model of healthcare as revenue generation imported into public health programs responsible for managing a communicable disease. It transforms the health of people living with HIV into a bargaining chip, and it represents a fundamental betrayal of what public health programs exist to do.
The people whose medications get delayed, whose viral loads rebound, whose resistance profiles narrow while prior authorizations are processed are not an unfortunate side effect of this model. They are the leverage. That is not healthcare. It is government treating public health as a profit center.
The economics don't support it either. Every new infection from someone with a detectable viral load carries an estimated lifetime medical cost of $326,500, with the cost avoided by preventing that infection estimated at $229,800. More recent analyses from HIVMA put average lifetime expenditures between $500,000 and more than $1.2 million. A Precision Health Economics analysis estimated that allowing UM on Part D antiretrovirals alone could result in over 6,750 new HIV infections. Whatever supplemental rebate a state might extract by threatening formulary restrictions will be dwarfed by the downstream costs. And in a U.S. cohort studied between 2021 and 2023, 28% of people with HIV experienced a treatment interruption of 90 days or more, with those affected disproportionately women, Black, dealing with substance use, and less likely to have commercial insurance. These barriers concentrate harm on the people who are already most structurally vulnerable.
We Have Already Watched This Fail
We don't need to theorize. We watched it happen with Hepatitis C. For years, state Medicaid programs and MCOs imposed PA, step therapy, sobriety requirements, and prescriber restrictions on curative direct-acting agents for HCV. People were denied treatment while their disease progressed. By the end of 2025, 34 jurisdictions had removed PA requirements for most Medicaid HCV patients, reflecting the national consensus that those restrictions never served patients or budgets. Louisiana itself now receives an "A" grade for HCV Medicaid access. As CANN's letter to Vice Chair McMahen on HB927 notes, the bill proposes substantially similar risks to HIV medication access as those once imposed on HCV, in a state that passed model PrEP and PEP legislation in 2024 that these same UM tools would undermine.
What Must Happen
Florida's own legislature proved these cuts are not inevitable when it passed HB 697 in mid-March with $31 million to restore ADAP eligibility for over 11,000 people. Bipartisan, responsive, and proof that different choices are available when the political will exists.
States must fight for adequate federal ADAP funding, which has been flat-funded since FY2014 while program costs have grown relentlessly. They must leverage 340B rebates and supplemental funding rather than cutting the people the programs exist to serve. They must design Medicaid formularies to ensure access following federal HIV treatment guidelines, not undermine them. And their federal legislators should realize that if we can fund the Department of Defense at a trillion dollars a year, we can surely pay to keep people from dying from AIDS.
There is no clinical necessity for removing ARV protections. Doing so will not balance budgets. It will create drug resistance, increase transmission, push people into more expensive care settings, and compound the harms of H.R. 1's Medicaid budget cuts and work requirements, which threaten coverage for 42% of Medicaid enrollees with HIV. At every level of analysis, this approach fails. What it succeeds at is transferring the cost of federal policy failures onto the bodies of people living with HIV, and that is not fiscal responsibility. It is abandonment dressed in budget drag.
Criminal Counterfeits Threaten Patient Safety
In February 2021, a patient in New York City opened a sealed bottle of the HIV drug Biktarvy, took his pill, and found that he couldn’t walk or speak. The medicine in the bottle was actually Seroquel, an antipsychotic that can cause dangerous sedation and poses additional risks for patients with high blood pressure, diabetes, or low white blood counts. This patient’s experience reflects a worrying uptick in financial fraud, counterfeiting and drug diversion in the HIV medicine world since 2019. Read on to learn about recent court cases that shed light on the problem, and it threatens HIV patients.
Forged documents helped sell tens of thousands of bottles of questionable HIV meds
Between February and April 2021, at least eight different patients found Seroquel, the wrong HIV treatment or, in one case, over-the-counter painkillers, in what appeared to be factory-sealed bottles of Biktarvy or Descovy. The Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies had warned about a similar issue in December 2020, when bottles labeled Symtuza turned out to contain Seroquel or Prezcobix, a different Janssen HIV treatment which contains half of Symtuza’s active ingredients, and won’t, by itself, control a patient’s viral load.
After investigating, Gilead Sciences and Janssen filed lawsuits against more than 70 defendants, including licensed distributors and pharmacies, who allegedly sold unsafe versions of HIV drugs acquired in nefarious ways. They used a variety of methods to get perfect looking bottles, including buying them at the street level from HIV patients who needed money. According to court papers and investigative journalists, the medicine the alleged criminals sold was unsafe: some bottles contained the wrong pills altogether, some were no longer factory-sterile because they had been opened and resealed, and all of them came with forged documentation. According to Gilead, the ring made hundreds of millions of dollars by putting more than 85,000 fake bottles of its products on pharmacy shelves over a two-year period.
Florida HIV prevention medicine assistance program bilked of $68MM
In May, Gilead Sciences settled a lawsuit it filed in November 2020 to stop a scam run by 58 Florida-based clinics, pharmacies, labs and affiliated individuals. According to Gilead’s complaint, the defendants hired van drivers who visited sites like soup kitchens, public libraries, bus terminals, and churches to offer homeless and low-income people money to sign up to receive PrEP, which helps prevent HIV infection, through the program, regardless of whether PrEP was an appropriate treatment for them. Sometimes, after patients received the medicine they had never wanted, the drivers bought it back so that it could be resold into the black market. More than $68M of assistance was diverted from patients who actually needed help paying for their medicine and the scheme provided an avenue for more mishandled, secondhand and potentially expired medicines to reach patients.
Another $230MM in black market HIV drugs slipped into U.S. pharmacies
In June, the Justice Department (DOJ) indicted a Miami man for his alleged role in distributing $230 million in HIV drugs he had acquired illegally. According to the DOJ, he and his co-conspirators established licensed wholesale drug distributors in four states and used them, with false documentation, to sell the medicines at a discount to other co-conspirators running distribution companies in Mississippi, Maryland, and New York. Ultimately, those treatments reached pharmacies, and patients across the country.
We’re likely to hear more about rings like this; according to the Wall Street Journal, the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation that involves products from at least 12 drugmakers.
Resold and diverted drugs threaten patients
Patients in the early years of the HIV/AIDS epidemic pooled resources to share medicines with those who could not access new treatments. No one could ensure that those drugs were safe and effective, but community action was critical, and it saved many lives. These days, regulated, safely manufactured HIV medicines are available through public and private insurance and through assistance programs. By steadily controlling viral loads, these drugs help people live long, healthy lives.
These medications only work, however, if patients take the right pills with the right ingredients all the time—and there’s no way to ensure that that’s happening if black market drug rings are breaking into the drug supply. In these cases, vast networks of drug diverters and counterfeiters are enriching themselves while endangering the lives of people living with HIV/AIDS, and they must be stopped.
The scale of these crimes—committed in the last three years— is staggering. The last major drug counterfeiting charge was pegged at around US$80mm, and just this year we’ve had three cases, each one of them around that size or larger. While law enforcement and brand protection attorneys are actively using every last civil and criminal option to protect patients, patients can also take steps to protect themselves using the tips in HIV survivor Brandon Macsata’s recent PSA about counterfeits. PSM urges all HIV patients to take two minutes to learn how to stay safer.
A Different Booster: HBV Vaccines among PLWHA
Because of the shared transmission vectors between HIV and Hepatitis B (HBV), the rate of co-infection is about 10% in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As a result, people living with HIV (PLWHA) are more likely to experience adverse health impacts including cirrhosis and certain types of liver cancers. A small study conducted in Chile took a look at the recommended HBV vaccine schedule among adults living with HIV and HBV antibody uptake and potentially finding cause for a “high dose” fourth shot to be added into the series for PLWHA.
A giant asterisk belongs on the study’s findings, labeled “deserves further study consideration”. Despite being double-blinded, the study’s greatest weakness included participant pool size (right around 100 participants) and clinical selection criteria (which remains an issue in clinical trial work, generally speaking). In order to be considered for the study, participants generally had to present with an undetectable HIV viral load and no other comorbidities, ruling out application of the resulting data to most PLWHA and especially most long-term survivors or people experiencing barriers to care or medication adherence concerns – or those most likely to be impacted by HIV and HBV co-infection.
The study sought to examine the need for revaccination among PLWHA. Of note, the CDC’s “Pink Book” on HBV does not recommend “boosters” unless a particular “low” threshold of HBV antibodies is met, nor does the publication recommend for routinized serological testing among people who have previously received a vaccine. Therein lies a program and policy problem. We’ll get to that in a moment.
As a result of selection bias favoring those with more ideal circumstances, few participants dropped out of the trial. The study itself found that a fourth and “stronger” dose of vaccine improved antibody responses among people with “well controlled” HIV with an improved HBV antibody response from 50.9% in the low-dose arm of the study to 72% among the high-dose arm of the trial. After a one-year follow up, 80% of participants of the high-dose arm still had sufficient antibody titers, whereas only 39% of the standard-dose arm still had sufficient antibodies for protection.
While Ryan White and CDC funded clinical care programs for PLWHA require HBV monitoring and vaccination efforts as part of their grant funding, few entities necessarily do and almost no private providers do. Federally-funded providers may screen upon intake or initial labs but maintenance screening is not a priority in terms of clinical data collected on a given patient. Even on-site audits from these funders can sometimes look like reviewing particular case files and discussing details but the HBV conversation is not pressing. Rather, a review of intake data can suffice depending on the clinical auditor/consultant (site-visits and audits are often conducted under the supervision of the funding agency but only actually audited by consultants, including staff from other funded clinics).
Public funders aiming to end HBV and the unjust circumstances in which PLWHA are not educated by their providers on the other risks to their health should shift some focus to emphasize the need for preventative care – especially vaccines. Provider education for these publicly funded clinics should include the need to routinize HBV antibody monitoring not just as a concern on behavioral risk factors continuing in a client’s life but because HBV immunity is clearly not necessarily a given, regardless of prior vaccination history.
While the study suggests the need for investigating further, with regard to efficacy of HBV vaccines among PLWHA, the larger question - given the nation-wide rush for another vaccine (and boosters) - creating more robust standards of care among a population known to have immunological “memory-loss” due to the particular cells “attacked” by HIV seems to be in order. Part and parcel to that is tying this level of necessary education to funding and licensure could improve the quality of care PLWHA receive, especially those of low-income and otherwise marginalized identities.