Clade I Mpox Emerges as Public Health Capacity Collapses
Between October 14 and October 17, 2025, three California residents were confirmed with Clade I mpox, all requiring hospitalization, none vaccinated, none with international travel history. These represent the first known cases of community transmission of Clade I within the United States. The strain demonstrates case fatality rates of 3-10.6% compared to less than 0.2% for the Clade II virus that spread in 2022. All three cases occurred in Southern California. Health officials have found no epidemiological connections between them.
This was predictable. In May 2023, the Community Access National Network (CANN) cautioned against premature declarations of victory over mpox, warned that insufficient vaccine coverage among marginalized communities risked endemic transmission, and urged public health agencies to take community reports seriously rather than "paternalistically denying the potential or possibility of new outbreaks or breakthrough cases." Two and a half years later, the infrastructure to respond to those warnings has been systematically dismantled precisely when the more dangerous strain has arrived.
What We Failed to Build
Only 21-23% of at-risk populations nationally have received the full two-dose JYNNEOS vaccine series. This means 66-78% remain unvaccinated against a virus now spreading domestically. Even California, ranked third nationally with 43% of at-risk populations fully vaccinated, leaves more than half of vulnerable people unprotected. None of the three confirmed Clade I cases had been vaccinated.
The racial disparities are unchanged from 2022. As of April 2023, 77.9% of Black people in vaccine-eligible populations remained unvaccinated, despite experiencing mpox incidence 5.8 times higher than White people during the August 2022 peak. The vaccination-to-case ratio during the 2022 outbreak tells the story precisely: for every mpox case in a White male, 43 White males were vaccinated. For Black males, 9 were vaccinated per case. For Hispanic males, 17 per case.
JYNNEOS was added to CDC immunization schedules in October 2023. Most health plans have been required to cover vaccination without cost-sharing since January 1, 2025. Access improved. Utilization did not. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong of UCSF explained the gap: "They might have gotten the first shot back in 2022 when everyone was afraid, and people knew a lot of people who had it." As mpox faded from headlines, vaccination rates declined. Series completion rates remain at 64.5% in California. The consequence is massive population vulnerability to a virus significantly more dangerous than the 2022 strain, spreading now in the communities with the lowest vaccination coverage.
What We Are Dismantling
The federal government shutdown that began October 1, 2025, continues through October 22, now the second-longest in modern U.S. history. Only 37% of CDC staff continue working. Disease surveillance analysis has halted for certain diseases. Guidance to state and local health departments has been suspended. Communication lines are severely limited.
On October 10, approximately 600 CDC workers were cut when 1,300 employees received Reduction in Force (RIF) notices. These targeted staff in infectious disease programs, Laboratory Leadership Service, the CDC Library, chronic disease programs, global health initiatives, and health statistics. The entire CDC Washington Office was eliminated, destroying the agency's Congressional liaison capacity. Dr. John Brooks, former CDC Division of HIV Prevention official, explained the significance: "CDC has worked directly with Congress for decades to help constituents by providing data, expertise and insight when needed. These firings mean Congress no longer has a means of direct access to the agency it funds when it needs information or briefings."
This followed March 2025 HHS restructuring under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that eliminated approximately 3,000 CDC positions, a 25% workforce reduction. The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) failed to publish for the first time in its 60-year history. Dr. Karen Remley, former CDC official and Virginia health commissioner, described the practical impact: "Sometimes that help might be sending some people to help you investigate this. Sometimes that might be talking to somebody who's the world's expert on a specific type of infection or exposure. Now, there's nobody to answer the phone."
The California Department of Public Health acknowledged: "The department continues to work with available staff at CDC, but the recent federal government shutdown and other actions at the federal level have added a layer of uncertainty to the current work environment." Joseph Osmundson, Clinical Associate Professor of Biology at NYU, stated it plainly: "The infrastructure we built during the 2022 outbreak has just been eviscerated. The very things we need to understand if we have a problem now, and if we will have a problem in the future, are being systematically dismantled."
What We Refused to Fix
Provider knowledge gaps documented in 2022 persist unchanged. A Johns Hopkins study analyzing 1,024 mpox tests across different clinical settings found anogenital examination performed in only 44.5% of emergency department visits and 40.4% of primary care visits, compared to 82.4% in infectious disease clinics. An HIV activist in New York's Hell's Kitchen reported in early 2023: "A number of my friends, as well as myself, if I'm being honest, have reported that their physicians are both unaware that reinfection with MPV [MPOX Virus] is possible and that infections can still occur in people who have been fully vaccinated, and as a result of their knowledge gap are refusing to test MPV lesions."
Spanish-language materials were not available until August 2022, three months into the outbreak. Technology-dependent scheduling systems requiring monitoring of health department social media accounts favored digitally connected populations. Uninsured patients were vaccinated significantly later than privately insured patients, 83 days versus 41 days. Three years later, these barriers remain unaddressed.
The vaccination disparities - 77.9% of Black people unvaccinated, 9 vaccinated per case compared to 43 per case for White people - reflect structural access failures compounded by medical mistrust rooted in documented sterilization programs, non-consensual experimentation, and systemic racism in healthcare delivery. As CANN documented in 2022, these historical harms manifest in current provider interactions: "Moral judgments are made, stories get told, patients are admonished and made to feel ashamed. The impacts of these behaviors, both short-term and long-term, can lead to patients refusing to seek testing or treatment." The barriers are known. The solutions are known. We have chosen not to implement them.
What Works and What We Abandoned
Community-based vaccination programs work. CDC's Mpox Vaccine Equity Pilot Program launched in September 2022 received 35 vaccination project proposals, with 22 completed projects administering 25,675 vaccine doses at targeted locations including Pride events and sexual health clinics. The program partnered with community-based organizations serving gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men and transgender people, used trusted messengers, and eliminated eligibility documentation barriers. It was proven effective. It was never scaled to address the 66-78% of at-risk populations who remain unvaccinated.
No real-world effectiveness data exists for JYNNEOS against Clade I. The vaccine is expected to provide protection based on its mechanism and animal studies showing 100% protective efficacy against death. But antibody levels wane significantly 6-12 months post-vaccination, dropping to levels at 12 months comparable to peak single-dose levels. Whether booster doses might be needed remains unresolved. CDC currently does not recommend third doses.
Epidemiological models suggest vaccination coverage above 50% is needed to prevent mpox outbreaks in high-risk populations. California's 43% falls short. Most states are far below that threshold. As CANN wrote in 2023: "If we are ever going to eradicate MPV in the United States, we are going to have to do a significantly better job of getting vaccine supplies to those most likely to be impacted and do a better job of overcoming the cultural and hesitancy barriers that exist in those communities."
The recommendations are unchanged because the problems are unchanged. Increase investments in mobile, pop-up, and community-based healthcare delivery. Provide culturally competent care that meets people where they are. Address provider knowledge gaps through comprehensive education. Eliminate technology-dependent barriers to vaccine access. Collect complete demographic data to track and address disparities. Hold health departments accountable for being "responsive, creative, and careful as community members and advocates identify potential cases and outbreaks."
The Choice We Face
These are early days of this outbreak. But the October 2025 California cases represent something no other country has reported: Clade I mpox transmission without international travel links. Sweden, United Kingdom, Germany, Thailand, Australia all successfully prevented community transmission when they detected imported cases through rapid surveillance, contact tracing, and adequate public health capacity. No wider community transmission occurred in any of these countries.
The California cases emerged during a 22-day federal shutdown, with CDC operating at 37% staffing. State health departments report "nobody to answer the phone" when they need federal expertise. Whether this degraded capacity contributed to these cases spreading undetected, or whether it will hamper efforts to contain them, remains to be seen.
Whether California can contain these three cases depends on rapidly closing vaccination gaps in communities with lowest coverage and highest risk, restoring adequate federal public health capacity to support state and local response, and implementing the equity-centered strategies that worked in 2022 but were never sustained. The infrastructure to accomplish these goals did exist.
Three cases with no identified connections between them and no clear source of transmission suggests either multiple introductions or undetected spread. The systems that failed to prevent these cases being the first domestic transmissions must now prove they can contain them. The question is whether they still have the capacity to do so.
America's Vaccination Problem
Politics Trump Public Health
The United States is confronting a serious resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases, exemplified by the measles outbreak in Texas and New Mexico that has now infected over 124 people and claimed the life of an unvaccinated child. This crisis coincides with multiple failures in public health leadership and unprecedented political interference in evidence-based practice.
Recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analysis reveals that the percentage of children with a vaccine-hesitant parent varies dramatically by vaccine type — from 56% for COVID-19 vaccines to 12% for routine childhood vaccines. This growing hesitancy has created dangerous gaps in community protection across the country.
In a rapid succession of alarming developments within a single week, we've witnessed a new confirmed measles case in Kentucky from an international traveler, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Jr.'s cancellation of a multimillion-dollar project to develop an oral COVID-19 vaccine, and the FDA's abrupt cancellation of a critical advisory committee meeting on next season's flu vaccine formulation. During his first cabinet meeting appearance, Kennedy incorrectly stated there had been two measles deaths (there was one) and downplayed the outbreak as "not unusual" — a claim physicians immediately contradicted.
This confluence of declining vaccination rates, active disease outbreaks, and systematic dismantling of public health infrastructure represents a crisis entirely of our own making. It’s 2025 and children are dying from diseases we've known how to prevent for decades, not because of scientific limitations, but because of a collective failure to prioritize evidence over ideology.
A Dismantling in Real Time
At the February 27 cabinet meeting, HHS Secretary Kennedy made several troubling statements about the ongoing measles outbreak. "Measles outbreaks are not unusual," Kennedy claimed, an assertion quickly refuted by medical experts.
"Classifying it as 'not unusual' would be inaccurate," said Dr. Christina Johns, a pediatric emergency physician. "Usually an outbreak is in the order of a handful, not over 100 people that we have seen recently with this latest outbreak in West Texas."
Dr. Philip Huang, director of Dallas County Health and Human Services, was more direct: "This is not usual. Fortunately, it's not usual, and it's been because of the effectiveness of the vaccine."
Kennedy's statement that two people had died from measles was also incorrect – Texas officials confirmed there has been one death, an unvaccinated school-aged child. His claim that patients were hospitalized "mainly for quarantine" was astonishingly false. Local health officials reported that most patients required treatment for serious respiratory issues, including supplemental oxygen and IV fluids.
Meanwhile, in just his first two weeks in office, Kennedy has taken several actions that threaten to undermine vaccine development and public health guidance:
The FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting scheduled for March was abruptly canceled. This annual meeting is crucial for selecting the strains to be included in next season's flu vaccines. A wise move in the middle of the worst flu season in 15 years. Norman Baylor, former director of the FDA's Office of Vaccine Research and Review, told NBC News: "I'm quite shocked. The VRBPAC is critical for making the decision on strain selection for the next influenza vaccine season."
Kennedy halted a $460 million contract with Vaxart to develop a new COVID-19 vaccine in pill form, just days before 10,000 people were scheduled to begin clinical trials.
Just days earlier, Kennedy indefinitely postponed a meeting of the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which helps determine vaccine recommendations for states and insurers.
Dr. Paul Offit, a member of VRBPAC and vaccine expert at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, expressed his dismay: "I feel like the world is upside down. We aren't doing the things we need to do to protect ourselves."
Evidence of Vaccine Success Amid Political Attacks
In striking irony, the CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) just published new data demonstrating the remarkable success of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in preventing cervical cancer. During 2008–2022, cervical precancer incidence decreased 79% among screened women aged 20–24 years, the age group most likely to have been vaccinated. Higher-grade precancer incidence decreased 80% in the same group.
This success story illustrates what effective vaccination programs can achieve when supported by consistent policy and healthcare provider recommendations. The HPV vaccine has prevented countless future cancers in a generation of young people, with similar potential for other vaccines when politics doesn't interfere with public health.
The contrast between this evidence of vaccine success and the current administration's assault on public health infrastructure could not be more glaring. At the very moment when scientific data confirms vaccines' life-saving impact, political appointees are systematically dismantling the systems designed to implement and monitor vaccination programs.
The False Promise of "Informed Consent"
Kennedy has justified halting vaccine promotion by claiming he wants future campaigns to focus on "informed consent" instead. However, experts warn this framing misrepresents the concept and creates dangerous misperceptions about vaccines (which, to be fair, would make it right in RFK Jr.’s wheelhouse—if only that were the actual job description).
Mark Navin, Lainie Friedman Ross, and Jason A. Wasserman explained in STAT News: "True 'informed consent' requires an understanding of how people process information about risks, and public health must promote collective benefits rather than focus entirely on individual autonomy."
Simply listing potential vaccine side effects without context creates predictable cognitive biases, similar to hearing about a shark attack and becoming afraid to swim despite the infinitesimal risk. As these experts note, "It is more like handing someone a list of everything that could go wrong on an airplane without mentioning that flying is far safer than driving."
The CDC's canceled 'Wild to Mild' campaign appropriately conveyed what matters most: vaccines' ability to turn severe, potentially deadly disease cases into manageable, mild illnesses—reducing hospitalizations, complications, and deaths. Replacing this messaging with uncontextualized risk information isn't enhancing informed consent — it's promoting fear and hesitancy.
The Expanding Measles Threat
Measles is making a dangerous comeback. The Kentucky Department of Health confirmed its first case since 2023 in an adult who recently traveled internationally. While contagious, the individual visited a Planet Fitness gym, potentially exposing others—a not-so-subtle reminder that wiping down equipment is more than just good manners.
This case adds to outbreaks in nine states, including Texas, New Mexico, Alaska, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. The most severe remains in West Texas’ Gaines County, where nearly 14% of schoolchildren have religious exemptions from required vaccinations.
On February 26, an unvaccinated child in that Texas community became the first U.S. measles fatality since 2015 and the first pediatric death since 2003. Before vaccines, measles killed 400 to 500 Americans annually.
These outbreaks are particularly tragic given that the MMR vaccine is exceptionally safe and effective. Two doses provide 97% protection against a disease that, without vaccination, would infect nearly every child by age 15. Among 10,000 measles cases, 10 to 30 children will die, 2,000 will require hospitalization, and over 1,500 will suffer serious complications, some with lifelong consequences.
By contrast, severe vaccine side effects are extraordinarily rare—fewer than four in 10,000 people experience fever-related seizures, blood clotting issues, or allergic reactions. As beloved children’s author Roald Dahl wrote after losing his daughter Olivia to measles encephalitis in 1962: "I think it is almost a crime to allow your child to go unimmunized."
Roald Dahl and the open letter he wrote in 1986, encouraging parents to vaccinate their children against measles. (Credit: Ronald Dumont/Daily Express/Getty Images)
Declining Vaccination Rates
Vaccination rates for measles and other preventable diseases have been trending downward, creating dangerous gaps in community protection. According to research from the Center for American Progress, kindergarten MMR vaccination rates have fallen below the critical 95% threshold needed for herd immunity. Since the 2019-20 school year, coverage has dropped from 95% to approximately 93% nationwide, leaving over 250,000 children vulnerable to infection.
This decline is even more concerning at the state level. Thirty-nine states saw vaccination rates fall below the 95% threshold in the 2023-24 school year, an increase from 28 states during the 2019-20 school year. Overall, less than 93% of kindergarten children were up to date on their state-required vaccines in 2023-24, compared with 95% four years earlier.
COVID-19 and influenza vaccination rates show similar concerning trends. According to the CDC's vaccination tracking data, only 23.1% of adults have received the 2024-25 COVID vaccine, while 45.3% have received the seasonal flu vaccine. For adults 65 and older, these rates are somewhat higher but still insufficient – 44.4% for COVID and 70.2% for flu.
A 2022 modeling study estimated that over 9.1 million children (13.1%) in the United States are currently susceptible to measles infection. If pandemic-level vaccination declines persist without catch-up efforts, that number could rise to over 15 million children (21.7%), significantly increasing the risk of larger and more frequent outbreaks.
When Vaccines Become Political Identifiers
Vaccine-preventable diseases disproportionately impact vulnerable communities. Flu vaccination rates vary significantly by race, with 49% of White adults vaccinated, compared to 42% of Black adults and 35% of Hispanic adults. These disparities stem from access barriers, medical mistrust, and inconsistent provider recommendations.
The politicization of vaccines exacerbates these challenges. Support for school vaccine mandates has dropped from 82% in 2019 to 70% in 2023, driven by a sharp decline among Republicans (79% to 57%), while Democratic support remains stable at 85-88%. Similar trends appear among White evangelical Protestants, where support for school vaccine requirements fell from 77% to 58%. This geographic clustering of under-vaccinated populations fuels outbreaks—exactly what’s unfolding in West Texas.
Partisan divides extend beyond COVID-19. Republicans report lower annual flu vaccination rates than Democrats (41% vs. 56%), and among those fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Democrats are nearly three times as likely to have received a recent booster (32% vs. 12%). Vaccine hesitancy also correlates with education levels, further compounding risks in communities with both lower socioeconomic status and conservative political leanings.
Addressing these disparities requires public health strategies that acknowledge political polarization while working beyond it. Culturally tailored messaging, trusted community voices, and policies that eliminate access barriers are essential to counteract the social and ideological forces shaping vaccine decisions today.
State-Level Assaults: Louisiana's Ban on Vaccine Promotion
Federal attacks on vaccine policy are now playing out at the state level. In February 2025, the Louisiana Department of Health announced it would no longer promote mass vaccination through health fairs or media campaigns—a directive from Surgeon General Dr. Ralph Abraham that drew immediate backlash from the medical community.
Nine state medical organizations, including the Louisiana State Medical Society, issued a joint letter condemning the move: "Immunizations should not be politicized. Healthcare should not be politicized. Public health should not be politicized. Your relationship with your physician should not be politicized."
Dr. Vincent Shaw, president of the Louisiana Academy of Family Physicians, called the opposition unprecedented and warned that halting vaccine promotion could bring back diseases he's "only seen in textbooks, like measles and rubella." Meanwhile, Abraham has misrepresented his credentials, falsely identifying as a board-certified family medicine physician—raising serious concerns about the expertise guiding public health policy.
The consequences are already surfacing. Dr. Mikki Bouquet, a Baton Rouge pediatrician, reports growing parental skepticism about routine vaccinations. "Now parents are asking which vaccines are really necessary. That's absurd—it’s like asking which vitamin matters most. You need them all."
Even Republican Senator Bill Cassidy, despite voting to confirm RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary, has criticized the policy, warning that cutting vaccine outreach ignores the reality of parents' lives.
This shift underscores a troubling trend: political ideology overriding evidence-based public health, with the most vulnerable populations poised to suffer the consequences.
The Fight for Evidence-Based Solutions
This past week has marked a dangerous escalation of political interference in public health. The cancellation of vaccine advisory meetings, the halting of innovative vaccine development, and the downplaying of a deadly measles outbreak signal a fundamental shift away from science-based policy.
Healthcare professionals can no longer afford to stay on the sidelines. Beyond their clinical roles, they must become active policy advocates by:
Contacting state and federal representatives to oppose policies that undermine vaccination
Engaging with professional organizations to develop unified advocacy efforts
Providing expert testimony at legislative hearings on vaccine-related bills
Writing op-eds and speaking to media about vaccine safety and efficacy
Countering misinformation as trusted community voices
Supporting candidates who prioritize evidence-based public health policies
Medical organizations must also wield their influence more effectively. The recent joint statement from nine Louisiana medical groups demonstrates the power of unified action, while hospital systems—often major employers—hold political capital that should be used to safeguard public health infrastructure.
Community advocates play a critical role, too. Parents, faith leaders, and business owners can amplify vaccine messaging and reinforce public health norms. Even conservatives who support science-based medicine must speak out. As Senator Bill Cassidy’s rebuke of Louisiana’s vaccine policy shows, principled advocacy can transcend partisan divides when children's health is at stake.
The choice is clear: we either defend decades of vaccination progress or risk a return to the preventable suffering of the pre-vaccine era. Healthcare providers willing to advocate beyond clinic walls will determine which path we take.